
Post by zanshin on Jan 4, 2020 4:55:41 GMT 5
Cubicle 7 has lost the Lord of the Rings Licence so is selling the PDFs of it's games at a big discount on Humble Bundle & Bundle of Holding. If you have any interest in this setting the amount of material available for the price is amazing, and alos time limited. I am not on commission I have picked up both.



Post by Aramis of Erak on May 5, 2021 7:08:13 GMT 5
I'm looking forward to TOR 2E.


nnnn1001
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Post by nnnn1001 on Sept 15, 2021 17:51:43 GMT 5
I'm looking forward to TOR 2E. Hi, given your great work on 1e dice probabilities and python skills, I was wondering if you'd be willing to check my work / create a table for Councils and Skill Endeavors for 2e? I posted on the Free League board, but for some reason people didn't seem to like your precision there... Ideally, I'd like to see a TN14 and TN16 chart that shows, skill dice 1S6S on the Y axis, 3,6,9 resistance on the X axis. Bonus if also adding Resistance +1 and +2 attemps for good Council Introductions. So 3 successes in 4 tries, 3 successes in 5 tries, 6 successes in 7 tries, etc. Here's the relevant calcs I did, using your weights for X successes at TN16 for YS dice: For 3S and TN16 I get a chance of success of (>= the resistance): 3 resistance = 52.3% 6 resistance = 47.7% 9 resistance = 44.6% For 4S and TN16 I get: 3 resistance = 83.3% 6 resistance = 88.1% 9 resistance = 91.5% And at TN13 at 2S dice from Dorjcal post: 3 resistance = 37% 6 resistance = 26% 9 resistance = 19% Here's some odds for success with 3S TN16 and a good introduction roll: For 3S and TN16 I get a chance of success of (>= the resistance), with tries = resistance (failure on introduction  happens 46% of the time) 3 resistance = 52.3% 6 resistance = 47.7% 9 resistance = 44.6% For 3S and TN16 with +1 to length (so 3 succeses in 4 tries, 6 successes in 7 tries, etc.)  happens 24% of the time 3 resistance = 69.9% 6 resistance = 61.5% 9 resistance = 56.4% For 3S and TN16 with +2 to length  happens 23% of the time 3 resistance = 81.8% 6 resistance = 72.9% 9 resistance = 66.9% IF, and a big IF these are correct there are a number of very interesting implications: • Because of bonus success from Tengwars, dice pool seems way more important than TN • As you get higher dice pools, it may actually be easier to do a 9 resistance challenge than a 3 resistance challenge (more chances for extra success)! Probably not intended. • in general, success rates are very low for 2S pools and very high for 4S +. 2S 3 resistance Councils and Skill Endevaors are quite difficult... Again – I am not 100% confident this is correct. I am hoping you could verify and if up for it do the expanded tables as they are beyond my skills! Thanks for your time! Python code below: Here’s the code for 9 resistance, using the weights from aramis’s post for 3S dice and TN 16 since it goes beyond 2 Tengwars: *** import random count=0 for i in range (1000000): numberList = [0, 1, 2, 3, 4] mylist= (random.choices(numberList, weights=(45.833, 24.306, 23.148 , 6.25, 0.463), k=9)) if sum(mylist) > 8: count = count +1 print (count/1000000) *** 4S and TN16 **** import random count=0 for i in range (1000000): numberList = [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5] mylist= (random.choices(numberList, weights=(21.599, 31.797, 33.565 , 11.42, 1.543, 0.077), k=9)) if sum(mylist) > 8: count = count +1 print (count/1000000) 2s and TN 13 using Dorjacal numbers: *** Import random count=0 for i in range (1000000): numberList = [0, 1, 2, 3] mylist= (random.choices(numberList, weights=(50.04, 31.3, 16.16 , 2.5), k=9)) if sum(mylist) > 8: count = count +1 print (count/1000000) **


oldskolgmr
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Hey, I'm a 2nd level Troll now! Arrow? Ah, it's a fashion statement!
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Post by oldskolgmr on Sept 15, 2021 19:44:46 GMT 5



Post by zanshin on Sept 16, 2021 1:33:02 GMT 5
I don't have the skills to test your maths, but I certainly admire the effort and information. I leave it to one of our more statistically minded posters to respond properly.



Post by Aramis of Erak on Sept 17, 2021 19:03:20 GMT 5
Methodological flaw  using random number generator
Instead, just loop through:
For A in [0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,20]: # 20 for gandalf, 0 for sauron For B in [1,2,3,4,5,6]: # actual tallying here



Post by Aramis of Erak on Sept 17, 2021 19:06:04 GMT 5
On the 2E beta... they removed most of the mechanical flavor along with the complexity. It no longer helps create the Tolkien feel.


nnnn1001
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Posts: 5

Post by nnnn1001 on Sept 20, 2021 11:35:01 GMT 5
Methodological flaw  using random number generator Instead, just loop through: For A in [0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,20]: # 20 for gandalf, 0 for sauron For B in [1,2,3,4,5,6]: # actual tallying here
[/quote]
Hmm. I'm not a coder and have about an hour experience with python so not sure what this means. Will do some more digging.
Meanwhile, I was able to get the probability of 1 die pool rolls for any TN with levels of success off Anydice that seem to equal your TN16 post. With those, I was able to run using the RNG method getting the following, where 6+1 means 6 successes in 7 tries, 6+2 means 6 successes in 8 tries.
Any chance you could run for TN14 using your loop method to see if these are close? Thanks.
TN16
3 3+1 3+2 6 6+1 6+2 9 9+1 9+2
2S 17 27 37 7 12 17 0.03 5 8
3S 52 70 82 48 62 73 45 56 67
4S 83 94 98 88 95 98 92 96 98
TN15
3 3+1 3+2 6 6+1 6+2 9 9+1 9+2
2S 23 36 48 12 19 27 7 11 5
3S 61 79 89 59 73 83 59 71 80
4S 88 97 99 93 98 99 96 98 99
TN14
3 3+1 3+2 6 6+1 6+2 9 9+1 9+2
2S 31 46 60 20 29 40 13 20 27
3S 69 86 94 70 83 91 72 82 90
4S 92 98 99.7 96 99 99.7 98 99 99.8


nnnn1001
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Post by nnnn1001 on Sept 20, 2021 11:40:09 GMT 5
On the 2E beta... they removed most of the mechanical flavor along with the complexity. It no longer helps create the Tolkien feel. Yeah, I'm not sold on 2e yet. I have the Alpha document, but was there a Beta release as well with major changes? Flavor aside, I'm not sure about the TNs linked to attribute method with using +/ d6 as difficulty adjustments. Changing dice pool seems way too chunky  in the 2S4S range that is like a 30 percentile change in success.



Post by Aramis of Erak on Sept 20, 2021 16:33:50 GMT 5
No, you have NOT established the probability with random calls. If you're doing stats and using random, you are methodologically in the wrong, no exceptions, for finding the probabilities.
You're not only not getting it right mathematically (because random routines aren't actually random), you're wasting cycles. You're literally wasting energy. Not to mention, you're likely to miss any true lowprobability results.
Python program for 2d6 in total:
#setup d6 = [1,2,3,4,5,6] res = [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0] #do the math count = 0 for a in d6: for b in d6: s = a + b res[s] += 1 count += 1 #print results y=0 print("Res\t frac\t perc.") for z in res: print(y,"\t",z,"/",count,"\t",(z/count),"%") y += 1
ANd it outputs:
Res frac perc. 0 0 / 36 0.0 % 1 0 / 36 0.0 % 2 1 / 36 0.027777777777777776 % 3 2 / 36 0.05555555555555555 % 4 3 / 36 0.08333333333333333 % 5 4 / 36 0.1111111111111111 % 6 5 / 36 0.1388888888888889 % 7 6 / 36 0.16666666666666666 % 8 5 / 36 0.1388888888888889 % 9 4 / 36 0.1111111111111111 % 10 3 / 36 0.08333333333333333 % 11 2 / 36 0.05555555555555555 % 12 1 / 36 0.027777777777777776 % 13 0 / 36 0.0 % Note that it runs in the 36 trips through the calculation loop, and then 14 times through the output loop (013) For 1d6+1d10, it changes a little
#setup d6 = [1,2,3,4,5,6] d10 = [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10] res = [0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0] #do the math count = 0 for a in d6: for b in d10: s = a + b res[s] += 1 count += 1 #print results y=0 print("Res\t frac\t perc.") for z in res: print(y,"\t",z,"/",count,"\t",(z/count),"%") y += 1
Note the increase in the size of res  you need at least as many slots as your maximum range on the dice included The d10 just lays out as a larger array than the d6. This step can be omitted (and sped up very slightly) by using the array itself in the for loops:
for a in [1,2,3,4,5,6]: for b in [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10]:
But it suffers in code readability. Adding extra dice? just more layers of for loops. Best of X:
t = [0,0,0] # t array is length of number of dice rolled; number kept in the loop # calculation loop for a in d6: for b in d6: c in d6: # here we load t t[0]=a t[1]=b t[2]=c # and here we actually sort for high first. t.sort(reverse=True) s = t[0] + t[1] res[s] += 1 count += 1
All this is doing is adding an array to sort in. Don't adjust the variables in the forloop, as it can result in issues.



Post by Aramis of Erak on Sept 20, 2021 16:42:51 GMT 5
On the 2E beta... they removed most of the mechanical flavor along with the complexity. It no longer helps create the Tolkien feel. Yeah, I'm not sold on 2e yet. I have the Alpha document, but was there a Beta release as well with major changes? Flavor aside, I'm not sure about the TNs linked to attribute method with using +/ d6 as difficulty adjustments. Changing dice pool seems way too chunky  in the 2S4S range that is like a 30 percentile change in success. Sorry; am used to most being labeled beta, and habit took over. I've yet to see a revision. I have seen that complaining about oversimplification gets a hostile reaction... first from prosimplification, then to them by folks like me who think it's gone too far.


nnnn1001
Lurker under the Bridge
Posts: 5

Post by nnnn1001 on Sept 22, 2021 14:25:51 GMT 5
No, you have NOT established the probability with random calls. If you're doing stats and using random, you are methodologically in the wrong, no exceptions, for finding the probabilities. You're not only not getting it right mathematically (because random routines aren't actually random), you're wasting cycles. You're literally wasting energy. Not to mention, you're likely to miss any true lowprobability results. Python program for 2d6 in total: Many thanks! I understand the loop method for any dice combination probabilities now. I don't think I yet get how to count Tengwars or how to set up arrays to count X successes in Y dice pool rolls with Tengwars giving extra successes, but I'll play around with it some more.


nnnn1001
Lurker under the Bridge
Posts: 5

Post by nnnn1001 on Sept 22, 2021 14:28:13 GMT 5
Yeah, I'm not sold on 2e yet. I have the Alpha document, but was there a Beta release as well with major changes? Flavor aside, I'm not sure about the TNs linked to attribute method with using +/ d6 as difficulty adjustments. Changing dice pool seems way too chunky  in the 2S4S range that is like a 30 percentile change in success. Sorry; am used to most being labeled beta, and habit took over. I've yet to see a revision. I have seen that complaining about oversimplification gets a hostile reaction... first from prosimplification, then to them by folks like me who think it's gone too far. Seems like we'll see the final out soon. There are a bunch of elements I am skeptical of as well, but haven't play tested any of it yet.

